Pecan Market Outlook – September 2025

Trade Policy Uncertainty, Global Tightness & Windows of Opportunity for SA Growers

1) Global Supply & Price Signals

• The global pecan balance remains tight. The 2025/26 in-shell crop is still projected ~4% lower year-on-year (≈288,934 t vs 302,119 t in 2024/25), with kernel output down ~6% and ending stocks barely 2 months of consumption buffer Cardassilaris (4 Jun 2025).
• Late-August trade commentary again flagged uncertainty in the U.S. and Mexico (weather, water, and cost pressure). Europe reports tight nearby availability Mundus Agri (28 Aug 2025).
• Chelmer Foods (05 Sep 2025) echoes this tone: while damage from Hurricane Helene (Georgia) may be less severe than first feared, market sentiment remains cautious, with concern that new bearing acres won’t fully offset losses in mature orchards this seasonChelmer Foods (05 Sep 2025)

2) South Africa’s Position

• 2025 season outlook: SA’s role as the only major origin growing into global tightness is being established.
• China zero-tariff pathway (June–July 2025): China announced a zero-tariff policy for 53 African countries, expected to boost the appeal of South African pecans as implementation phases in Produce Report (15 Jul 2025).

3) Trade Policy Watch (nuts broadly)

• China’s Section 301 tariff-exclusion process for U.S. agri imports: According to USDA/FAS (22 Jul 2025), new applications paused from 1 Aug 2025 and approved exclusions valid only until 14 Sep 2025, covering many tree nuts. This injects near-term uncertainty for U.S. origin priced into China DownloadReport.
• Separate U.S. notices show rolling short-term extensions of certain exclusions on the U.S. side (latest 27 Aug 2025 filing), underscoring how fluid the policy environment remains FRN to Extend Exclusions to Nov 2025 – Final USTR extends certain exclusions from China Section 301 tariffs | EY – Global.

Why it matters for pecans: Buyers facing policy whiplash diversify origin and timing, supportive for SA if logistics and specs are consistent.

4) Read-Across from Other Nuts (price context & substitution)

• Almonds: Trade/tariff frictions have nudged some Chinese demand toward Australia, while U.S. sellers navigate higher duties and logistics noise.
• Walnuts: EU/Asia demand is present, but logistics + tariff discussions constrain some U.S. flows, another sign that buyers seek stable origins Mundis Agri.
• Macadamias: 2025 crop downgrades in SA and Australia illustrate broader tightness/volatility across tree nuts, supporting relative value for pecans Munis Agri.

5) Near-Term Indicators to Watch

• North America actuals vs expectations: How much of the U.S./Mexico shortfall materialises post-Helene, and can new bearing acres close the gap?
• Chinese demand cadence: Zero-tariff rollout timing + festival-led buying vs inventory; SA’s early-season shipments remain well-timed for these peaks Traders – Produce Report.
• Stocks: With buffers near two months, any quality issues or shipping delays can amplify price reaction Fruit & Seeds Broker – Cardassilaris Family.

6) Outlook & Guidance for SA Producers

• Base case (Q4 2025): Tight global supply + policy friction keep prices supported, especially for clean in-shell and consistent kernel grades.
• Upside risks: Faster-than-expected zero-tariff traction in China; deeper North American shortfall.
• Downside risks: Weaker consumer sentiment; faster U.S. policy normalization; logistics shocks.

Practical takeaways:

1. Quality, quality, quality: Low defect, clean count, and tight moisture control will command the premium in tight markets.
2. Phase shipments to match China’s holiday peaks while continuing market-development in secondary destinations to reduce single-market exposure.
3. Keep optionality on kernels: Lean stocks and substitution across nuts can pull kernels along, be ready to pivot on grade/pack where demand is strongest.